Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 57475.261417 60868.814076 64268.374884 67926.770290 71749.684320 75623.892357 79844.161787
2024-10-27 51641.543334 56791.574936 62102.717897 67980.640972 74294.850960 80865.194237 88210.150328
2024-11-03 48281.131992 54680.281728 61429.731336 69061.290226 77432.128992 86316.148015 96439.197330
2024-11-10 45561.467283 52892.647641 60772.059265 69840.892292 79959.971859 90873.087365 103501.230504
2024-11-17 43107.200139 51152.747934 59944.679072 70222.158686 81861.371989 94588.399427 109510.585170
2024-11-24 40792.243376 49388.567732 58925.792010 70232.466454 83209.352086 97575.130886 114616.601703
2024-12-01 38965.798415 48054.922618 58279.414334 70556.564316 84817.842861 100780.801964 119914.934056
2024-12-08 37187.754783 46670.212679 57477.446040 70610.621262 86038.364496 103484.690106 124598.482717
2024-12-15 36133.957826 46071.598030 57532.099745 71609.723875 88313.474338 107375.429931 130641.121834
2024-12-22 34549.115231 44758.458930 56672.510893 71465.061605 89192.466070 109605.162675 134728.235530
2024-12-29 33774.769185 44383.117811 56894.101824 72576.211538 91535.212437 113538.997606 140818.704069
2025-01-05 32841.075952 43765.293931 56782.820802 73252.012878 93332.961194 116817.500715 146138.614750
2025-01-12 31628.121240 42769.675590 56189.857702 73332.349084 94418.569749 119272.704129 150527.823543
2025-01-19 30348.697470 41644.129173 55396.459969 73131.438471 95136.412031 121274.058409 154375.745142
2025-01-26 29775.446306 41388.979934 55662.949805 74225.132998 97431.514606 125181.548517 160540.634077
2025-02-02 29112.177705 40988.388860 55722.208009 75040.552512 99372.092242 128658.548295 166197.913374
2025-02-09 28302.279619 40365.194566 55471.719733 75442.255732 100781.770170 131480.173377 171061.621429
2025-02-16 27365.631429 39541.602144 54934.690174 75452.761353 101680.137008 133660.509382 175136.735633
2025-02-23 26624.526881 38950.561720 54673.782225 75795.876511 102983.644147 136336.788815 179830.431696
2025-03-02 25802.075153 38222.095737 54208.783659 75853.100994 103906.932260 138530.807564 183926.893113
2025-03-09 25434.223330 38094.409090 54519.960691 76910.953879 106108.701084 142334.003865 190053.596760
2025-03-16 24597.061729 37297.714858 53922.375348 76757.794390 106735.547842 144145.040445 193680.762277
2025-03-23 24323.036184 37267.244956 54337.254987 77934.116328 109085.348288 148147.312886 200094.169464